Germany HCOB Composite PMI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

EUR-0.1

Actual:

47.2

Forecast: 47.3

Previous/Revision:

48.6

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 47.8

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The HCOB Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for Germany explicitly measures the activity level of purchasing managers in both the manufacturing and service sectors, assessing overall business conditions including production, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. This index specifically focuses on identifying expansion or contraction within the economy, indicated by readings above 50 (expansion) and below 50 (contraction), and it serves as a national economic indicator.

Frequency

The report is released monthly, with the final figure typically published in the first week of each month following preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the HCOB Composite PMI as it offers timely insights into the health of the German economy, influencing financial market volatility and sentiment. Positive or higher-than-expected results tend to be bullish for the euro and equities, as they indicate robust economic growth, whereas weaker readings can be bearish, suggesting underlying economic weaknesses.

What Is It Derived From?

The Composite PMI is calculated from survey responses collected from purchasing managers at private companies across the manufacturing and service sectors. The data is compiled as a weighted average using industry-standard methodologies, allowing for a comprehensive reflection of economic conditions.

Description

The HCOB Composite PMI Final includes consolidated data from both the services and manufacturing sectors, offering a more definitive account of economic activity after revisions from the preliminary report. Preliminary data is typically more market-moving due to its timeliness, while the final data provides more accuracy and may lead to adjustments in market sentiment. This index is reported month-over-month (MoM), evaluating changes from the previous month to capture current economic trends and identify shifts in economic momentum.

Additional Notes

The HCOB Composite PMI is considered a leading indicator, providing early signals of economic performance that often precede broader economic trends and influence other regions, especially within the Eurozone. It is often compared to similar indices globally, like the US ISM PMI, offering insights into economic divergences or convergence.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for the Euro, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for the Euro, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the Euro but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	47.2	47.3	48.6	-0.1
Nov 06, 2024	48.6	48.4	47.5	0.2
Oct 03, 2024	47.5	47.2	48.4	0.3
Sep 04, 2024	48.4	48.5	49.1	-0.1
Aug 05, 2024	49.1	48.7	50.4	0.4
Jul 03, 2024	50.4	50.6	52.4	-0.2
Jun 05, 2024	52.4	52.2	50.6	0.2
May 06, 2024	50.6	50.5	47.7	0.1
Apr 04, 2024	47.7	47.4	46.3	0.3
Mar 05, 2024	46.3	46.1	47	0.2
Feb 05, 2024	47	47.1	47.4	-0.1
Jan 04, 2024	47.4	46.7	47.8	0.7
Dec 05, 2023	47.8	47.1	45.9	0.7
Nov 06, 2023	45.9	45.8	46.4	0.1
Oct 04, 2023	46.4	46.2	44.6	0.2
Sep 05, 2023	44.6	44.7	48.5	-0.1
Aug 03, 2023	48.5	48.3	50.6	0.2
Jul 05, 2023	50.6	50.8	53.9	-0.2
Jun 05, 2023	53.9	54.3	54.2	-0.4
May 04, 2023	54.2	53.9	52.6	0.3